Best Director

THR’s awards expert weighs in as the 41st Toronto International Film Festival begins.

These projections are a reflection of Scott Feinberg’s personal impressions (from advance screenings), publicly available information (release dates, genres, talent rosters and teasers/trailers often offer valuable clues), historical considerations (how other films with similar pedigrees have resonated), precursor awards (some awards groups have historically correlated with the Academy more than others) and consultations with industry insiders (including fellow members of the press, awards strategists, filmmakers and awards voters).

FRONTRUNNERS

Damien Chazelle (La La Land)
Denzel Washington (Fences) (Pictured above)
Ang Lee (Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk)
Barry Jenkins (Moonlight)
Martin Scorsese (Silence)

MAJOR THREATS

Nate Parker (The Birth of a Nation)
Oliver Stone (Snowden)
Kenneth Lonergan (Manchester by the Sea)
Ben Affleck (Live By Night)
Jeff Nichols (Loving)
Clint Eastwood (Sully)
Ted Melfi (Hidden Figures)
Ewan McGregor (American Pastoral)
Mike Mills (20th Century Women)

POSSIBILITIES

David Mackenzie (Hell or High Water)
Mel Gibson (Hacksaw Ridge)
Tom Ford (Nocturnal Animals)
Warren Beatty (Rules Don’t Apply)
Robert Zemeckis (Allied)
Ava DuVernay (The 13th)
David Frankel (Collateral Beauty)
Matt Ross (Captain Fantastic)
Stephen Frears (Florence Foster Jenkins)
Peter Berg (Patriots Day)

LONG SHOTS

Jon Favreau (The Jungle Book)
Morten Tyldum (Passengers)
Denis Villeneuve (Arrival)
Juan Antonio Bayona (A Monster Calls)
Garth Davis (Lion)
Steven Spielberg (The BFG)
Tate Taylor (The Girl on the Train)
Gavin Hood (Eye in the Sky)
Peter Berg (Deepwater Horizon)
James Schamus (Indignation)

STILL SEEKING U.S. DISTRIBUTION

Pablo Larrain (Jackie)
Terry George (The Promise)